Ever since Pearl's probability propagation algorithm in graphs with cycles was shown to produce excellent results for error-correcting decoding a few years ago, we have been curious about whether local probability propagation could be used successfully for ma(cid:173) chine learning. One of the simplest adaptive models is the factor analyzer, which is a two-layer network that models bottom layer sensory inputs as a linear combination of top layer factors plus in(cid:173) dependent Gaussian sensor noise. We show that local probability propagation in the factor analyzer network usually takes just a few iterations to perform accurate inference, even in networks with 320 sensors and 80 factors. We derive an expression for the algorithm's fixed point and show that this fixed point matches the exact solu(cid:173) tion in a variety of networks, even when the fixed point is unstable. We also show that this method can be used successfully to perform inference for approximate EM and we give results on an online face recognition task. 1 Factor analysis A simple way to encode input patterns is to suppose that each input can be well(cid:173) approximated by a linear combination of component vectors, where the amplitudes of the vectors are modulated to match the input.

One way to approximate inference in richly-connected graphical models is to apply the sum-product algorithm (a.k.a. The sum-product algorithm can be directly applied in Gaussian networks and in graphs for coding, but for many condi(cid:173) tional probability functions - including the sigmoid function - di(cid:173) rect application of the sum-product algorithm is not possible. We introduce "accumulator networks" that have low local complexity (but exponential global complexity) so the sum-product algorithm can be directly applied. In an accumulator network, the probability of a child given its parents is computed by accumulating the inputs from the parents in a Markov chain or more generally a tree. After giving expressions for inference and learning in accumulator net(cid:173) works, we give results on the "bars problem" and on the problem of extracting translated, overlapping faces from an image.

Forexample, in medical diagnosis, the presence of a symptom can be expressed as a noisy-OR of the diseases that may cause the symptom - on some occasions, a disease may fail to activate the symptom. Inference in richly-connected noisy-OR networks is intractable, butapproximate methods (e .g., variational techniques) are showing increasing promise as practical solutions. One problem withmost approximations is that they tend to concentrate on a relatively small number of modes in the true posterior, ignoring otherplausible configurations of the hidden variables. We introduce a new sequential variational method for bipartite noisy OR networks, that favors including all modes of the true posterior and models the posterior distribution as a tree. We compare this method with other approximations using an ensemble of networks with network statistics that are comparable to the QMR-DT medical diagnosticnetwork. 1 Inclusive variational approximations Approximate algorithms for probabilistic inference are gaining in popularity and are now even being incorporated into VLSI hardware (T.

Exact inference in large, richly connected noisy-OR networks is intractable, and most approximate inference algorithms tend to concentrate on a small number of most probable configurations of the hidden variables under the posterior. We presented an "inclusive" variational method for bipartite noisy-OR networks that favors including all probable configurations, at the cost of including some improbable configurations. The method fits a tree to the posterior distribution sequentially, i.e., one observation at a time. Results on an ensemble of QMR-DT type networks show that the method performs better than local probability propagation and a variational upper bound for ranking most probable diseases.

Exact inference in large, richly connected noisy-OR networks is intractable, and most approximate inference algorithms tend to concentrate on a small number of most probable configurations of the hidden variables under the posterior. We presented an "inclusive" variational method for bipartite noisy-OR networks that favors including all probable configurations, at the cost of including some improbable configurations. The method fits a tree to the posterior distribution sequentially, i.e., one observation at a time. Results on an ensemble of QMR-DT type networks show that the method performs better than local probability propagation and a variational upper bound for ranking most probable diseases.

Ever since Pearl's probability propagation algorithm in graphs with cycles was shown to produce excellent results for error-correcting decoding a few years ago, we have been curious about whether local probability propagation could be used successfully for machine learning.One of the simplest adaptive models is the factor analyzer, which is a two-layer network that models bottom layer sensory inputs as a linear combination of top layer factors plus independent Gaussiansensor noise. We show that local probability propagation in the factor analyzer network usually takes just a few iterations to perform accurate inference, even in networks with 320 sensors and 80 factors. We derive an expression for the algorithm's fixed point and show that this fixed point matches the exact solution ina variety of networks, even when the fixed point is unstable. We also show that this method can be used successfully to perform inference for approximate EM and we give results on an online face recognition task. 1 Factor analysis A simple way to encode input patterns is to suppose that each input can be wellapproximated bya linear combination of component vectors, where the amplitudes of the vectors are modulated to match the input. For a given training set, the most appropriate set of component vectors will depend on how we expect the modulation levelsto behave and how we measure the distance between the input and its approximation.

Ever since Pearl's probability propagation algorithm in graphs with cycles was shown to produce excellent results for error-correcting decoding a few years ago, we have been curious about whether local probability propagation could be used successfully for machine learning. One of the simplest adaptive models is the factor analyzer, which is a two-layer network that models bottom layer sensory inputs as a linear combination of top layer factors plus independent Gaussian sensor noise. We show that local probability propagation in the factor analyzer network usually takes just a few iterations to perform accurate inference, even in networks with 320 sensors and 80 factors. We derive an expression for the algorithm's fixed point and show that this fixed point matches the exact solution in a variety of networks, even when the fixed point is unstable. We also show that this method can be used successfully to perform inference for approximate EM and we give results on an online face recognition task. 1 Factor analysis A simple way to encode input patterns is to suppose that each input can be wellapproximated by a linear combination of component vectors, where the amplitudes of the vectors are modulated to match the input. For a given training set, the most appropriate set of component vectors will depend on how we expect the modulation levels to behave and how we measure the distance between the input and its approximation.

Ever since Pearl's probability propagation algorithm in graphs with cycles was shown to produce excellent results for error-correcting decoding a few years ago, we have been curious about whether local probability propagation could be used successfully for machine learning. One of the simplest adaptive models is the factor analyzer, which is a two-layer network that models bottom layer sensory inputs as a linear combination of top layer factors plus independent Gaussian sensor noise. We show that local probability propagation in the factor analyzer network usually takes just a few iterations to perform accurate inference, even in networks with 320 sensors and 80 factors. We derive an expression for the algorithm's fixed point and show that this fixed point matches the exact solution in a variety of networks, even when the fixed point is unstable. We also show that this method can be used successfully to perform inference for approximate EM and we give results on an online face recognition task. 1 Factor analysis A simple way to encode input patterns is to suppose that each input can be wellapproximated by a linear combination of component vectors, where the amplitudes of the vectors are modulated to match the input. For a given training set, the most appropriate set of component vectors will depend on how we expect the modulation levels to behave and how we measure the distance between the input and its approximation.